LINCOLN — Nebraska’s May primary election saw greater voter turnout among Democratic voters than Republicans for the first time in more than 30 years, according to an analysis by the Nebraska Examiner.
While some Democrats see that as a sign of “enthusiasm” among their base, one expert has cautioned that those numbers shouldn’t be used to make predictions about November’s general election.
About 35.5% of registered Democratic voters came out to vote in May’s primaries, compared with 32.1% of Republican voters. The last midterm election primary, in 2022, saw Republican turnout of about 45%, and about 29% of registered Democrats cast a ballot.
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The Examiner analyzed turnout data for Nebraska primary elections going back to 1990, and determined this year’s primary was the first time since then that Democratic turnout eclipsed Republican turnout. In the 1990 primary, 47.5% of registered Democrats voted compared to 47.18% of Republicans.
Overall, turnout in this year’s Nebraska primary election – 28.5% of all registered voters – was down compared to the last midterm, when 33.5% of voters participated in the primary.
Nebraska isn’t the only state that’s seen increased turnout among Democratic voters. A Washington Post analysis of 990 races over three cycles in 25 states this year found turnout is rising in Democratic primaries “even when they aren’t hotly contested and the nominee has little chance of winning in the general election.”
Nebraska’s primary election this year included a heated race for the Democratic nomination in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and a “weird” Democratic U.S. Senate primary that was seen as an effort by the eventual Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank to clear the candidate field for registered nonpartisan candidate Dan Osborn.
State Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb said in an interview that this year’s turnout shows “enthusiasm is clearly on the Democratic Party side.”
“I think people are very frustrated that Republicans made all these promises and have not delivered on lower costs,” Kleeb said.
What does primary turnout mean for the general election?
Dona-Gene Barton, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln who studies political behavior, told the Examiner that Democrats can point to the data as evidence of an energized base, but she cautioned against drawing major takeaways from it for the general election.
“At least in terms of statewide races such as the races for Governor and Senate, it’s important not to overstate the implications of higher Democratic turnout when the overall partisan registration numbers in the state are overwhelmingly comprised of Republican voters,” Barton said.
The registration margin between Nebraska Democrats and Republicans in 1990 was roughly 8.7 percentage points. That margin is now roughly 23 percentage points. Barton said the increase in nonpartisans has “almost solely come at the expense of registered Democrats in the state.”
A closer look at the numbers illustrates Barton’s point. According to the Secretary of State’s website, Republican Party registration this month was 620,454, compared with 328,037 Democrats and 281,662 registered nonpartisan voters.
Four years ago, in December 2022, Republican registration stood at 606,862; Democratic registration was 345,208, and nonpartisans numbered 268,606.
While Democrats had better turnout in this year’s primary, its number of voters was still smaller than the number of Republicans who cast ballots – 116,407 Democrats, compared to 199,062 Republicans.
“This is why it is difficult in statewide elections for Republicans to lose enough support that it actually affects the election outcome as we saw in Deb Fischer’s 2024 race against Dan Osborn,” Barton said.
‘Unity is what drives turnout in November’
Nebraska Republican Party Chair Mary Jane Truemper said turnout in the primary election “reflects what’s on the ballot, and midterm primaries historically see lower participation across the board.”
“Nebraska is no different. What I can tell you is that Nebraska Republicans are heading into the general election unified behind our nominees,” Truemper said. “That unity is what drives turnout in November.”
Truemper added that Nebraskans will notice “a stark contrast to what we’re seeing on the Democrat side, where their own party can’t seem to get behind the candidates their voters chose.”
Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen, a Republican, argued that “most Democrats love government” and spend a lot of energy on it, whereas conservatives “love to work, we’re capitalists, we work hard.”
Pillen told the Examiner that conservatives need to show up at all elections, not just in presidential years, and that his team will focus heavily on that this fall.
The party not in the White House typically does better in off-year elections when one party holds the presidency and both houses of Congress.
Kleeb told the Examiner the state Democratic Party has worked hard to encourage nonpartisans to vote in their elections. Kleeb said that 98% of the candidates the Democratic Party is supporting are Democrats, while it also is supporting some nonpartisan candidates.
“I think independents are seeing that as a sign that we stand with them in coalitions to break up this one-party rule that has led to a lot of corruption on the Republican side,” Kleeb said.
She also said the party is “still chasing” voter registration and added that it’s a national problem for Democrats as well.
“It’s this issue that we’re trying to solve, where a lot of the voter registration money has gone to nonpartisan groups…in our kind of donor world,” Kleeb said. “That’s finally shifting…we’ve made up some ground, but we have a lot of ground to make up still.”
The party chair told the Examiner last year that she wanted to register at least 10,000 more Democrats in the state in 2026.
The general election is Nov 3.
Examiner Reporter Zach Wendling contributed to this report.
This story is provided by States Newsroom, a nonprofit state news network and Blox Digital content partner.
