Former State Sen. Lynne Walz of Fremont hosts her tenth and final listening session in Omaha as part of her 2026 exploratory bid for governor. She plans to finalize a decision whether to run in early 2026. Dec. 13, 2025. (Photo by Zach Wendling/Nebraska Examiner)
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LINCOLN — Gov. Jim Pillen could face something foreign to modern Nebraska Republicans running for governor in the ruby-red state: a consequential general election race, if a new poll done on behalf of his likely opponent proves true.
The poll, done by North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling for former Democratic State Sen. Lynne Walz of Fremont, Pillen’s presumptive general election opponent, found him below the 50% support level for incumbents that pollsters typically consider vital.
The telephone, text and online survey of 670 state voters from April 6-7 found 38% support for Pillen, 33% support for Walz and double-digit support for Legal Marijuana NOW Party candidate Rick Beard. It listed a 3.8% margin of error.
The last time a Nebraska Democrat registered that close in a gubernatorial poll from a polling firm with a solid national reputation was the 1990s, which was also the last time the state’s minority party held the seat with Ben Nelson.
Nelson, who has endorsed Walz, told the Examiner on Tuesday that he sees the kinds of conditions that could make for a real race — difficulties balancing the state budget and a governor he said has divided people from different parts of the state.
The former governor and U.S. senator said people toward the middle of Nebraska politics — centrist Democrats, Republicans and independents — want state government to function well, and many appear to be drifting away from President Donald Trump.
“That’s the No. 1 thing that they look for,” Nelson said of swing voters. “People want to make sure that the state is in good financial condition. When it’s not, then they are concerned. … I think people may be looking for a change.”
Nebraska Republican incumbents running statewide rarely worry about their reelection chances in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats roughly 2-to-1, even with registered nonpartisans a growing part of the state electorate.
GOP political consultants who have spoken with the Examiner in recent months have said most wayward Republicans would not support Walz. Several argued the party might have been more divided for the general election had it hosted a competitive Republican primary.
“I don’t put too much stock in that poll, especially for an uncontested primary,” said Kyle Clark, an Omaha-area GOP consultant. “I think at the end of the day, people are going to show up and vote in November based on principles, and the governor represents their principles better than Walz.”
But 2026 is no ordinary year in politics, with polls showing Democrats more excited to vote than Republicans, and national polling about Pillen’s level of support showing him ranked among the nation’s least popular incumbent governors.
The Walz poll found half of Nebraskans unhappy with Pillen’s performance as governor and about a third of the surveyed voters pleased. The finding largely aligns with national surveys that had shown Pillen’s support lagging among incumbent governors.
Walz, reached Tuesday, had no immediate comment on the poll’s findings. Campaign spokesman Brandon Bayer, in a statement, said it’s clear Nebraskans are looking for a new direction. He said something similar to the Omaha World-Herald, which obtained the poll first.
“Everyone in the state is asking for property tax relief and struggling with the cost of housing, groceries and more,” he said.
Pillen’s campaign dismissed the poll, saying pollsters can use various approaches “to obtain different desired results, which leads to misrepresentation of reality.”
“These numbers do not accurately reflect our own internal polling or the truth,” said Andie Gage, a campaign spokeswoman.
Paul Landow, a retired University of Nebraska at Omaha political science professor who worked on Democratic campaigns, said it’s too soon to tell if the closeness of the race is durable, given the early timing, but he called Walz a solid, capable candidate.
The poll indicates nearly 1 in 5 voters (17%) remain undecided in the governor’s race. But Landow noted that conservative undecideds at this point in the cycle often come home in the fall.
By early April, Pillen had raised more than $10 million toward his reelection campaign in anticipation of a possible Republican challenger that never materialized. He faces only nominal opposition in his GOP primary this May. Walz had raised nearly $900,000 by early April.
This story is provided by States Newsroom, a nonprofit state news network and Blox Digital content partner.
